U.S. September payrolls expected at 84,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%
Analysts anticipate the Labor Department will report 84,000 jobs added in September and a 4.1% unemployment rate, while Federal Reserve officials assess the data amid ongoing inflation concerns.
The Labor Department is set to release its September nonfarm payroll report on Friday, with Wall Street forecasts calling for an increase of about 84,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, according to a Dow Jones consensus. The figure follows a robust gain of 162,000 jobs in August, which also prompted upward revisions to earlier months.
Federal Reserve officials are expected to use the data to gauge labor market strength while continuing to focus on inflation. Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said, "In the labor market, a broad range of data indicates that conditions have stabilized. While job creation has been somewhat volatile, payroll gains have broadened to many sectors in recent months, which is encouraging. Layoffs have remained low, and job openings have moved a bit higher on net."
New York Fed President John Williams added that there is "no need for urgency" in raising rates again soon, noting that the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate remains solid. Markets have consequently lowered the probability of a rate hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, shifting expectations toward a possible increase in December.
Average monthly payroll growth in 2026 has been about 80,000, though it has fluctuated widely. Wage growth is expected to slow to a 3.1% year-over-year rise in September, down from roughly 4% earlier in the year, a trend Fed officials say reduces the risk of a wage-price spiral.
Despite a generally stable employment picture, a recent Glassdoor survey recorded a record low in employee confidence for September, reflecting heightened anxiety about job security, economic uncertainty and inflation, according to the site’s chief economist Daniel Zhao. Layoffs remain low, with initial unemployment claims slipping to 197,000 last week and Challenger, Gray & Christmas reporting an 18% decline in September layoffs from August.
Allianz Trade senior economist Dan North described the market as "stable," noting that while job openings and hiring are modestly declining, the unemployment rate stays historically low, making the overall labor environment relatively steady.