California billionaire tax proposal faces declining support amid concerns from luxury real estate sector

Support for California's proposed "billionaire tax" has slipped to 45% among likely voters, according to a recent UC Berkeley poll, down from 50% earlier this year. The measure, known as Proposition 40, would levy a one-time 5% tax on assets exceeding $1 billion held by residents as of Jan. 1, 2026, with exemptions for real estate, pensions and retirement accounts. Payments would be due in 2027 and could be spread over five years.

Aaron Kirman, chief executive of Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California, said the prospect of the tax, combined with high inflation and mortgage rates, is causing a slowdown in luxury home sales. > "We think this proposal is disastrous for California. It's disastrous for the real estate market, and buyers and sellers have had enough of California taxation," he told Fox News Digital. He added that buyers and sellers are adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, which could affect the broader economy.

Kirman warned that wealthy individuals are evaluating other states that they perceive as more business-friendly. > "Billionaires and multimillionaires are studying the whole picture… If I am going to continue to get taxed in this manner, I would prefer to be in a state that appreciates my business and the employees that I generate," he said, suggesting a potential exodus if the tax passes.

He also cited Los Angeles’s Measure ULA, a local transfer tax on high-value property sales, as an example of policy that has reduced transaction volume and new apartment construction. Kirman argued that repeated tax increases could lead to broader concerns among affluent residents about future taxes on lower-wealth brackets.

California remains the world’s fourth-largest economy, though recent census data shows a slight population decline. Kirman emphasized the need for tax reforms that balance revenue needs with retaining businesses and high-income residents.