Raiders and Chiefs Lead Early NFL Surprises While 49ers' Start Raises Questions

Analyst Conor Orr evaluated five NFL teams that have exceeded expectations through the first three weeks of the 2026 season, assigning each a “realness” rating based on recent performance and context.

The Las Vegas Raiders, now 3–0, received a “pretty darn real” rating. Orr highlighted the defense’s eight forced fumbles, a low punt count and versatile offensive personnel sets, noting the team’s ability to score early in drives and its strong pass-block win rate. He suggested the Raiders could realistically target six wins without major upsets, given upcoming games against the Titans, Cardinals, Jets, Browns and Patriots.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, at 2–1, were judged “a perfectly normal amount of real.” Orr pointed to a narrow win over the Falcons and a solid showing against a strong Bengals defense, emphasizing Aaron Rodgers’ efficient play-action usage and the promising debut of rookie tackle Max Iheanachor.

Cleveland Browns, also 2–1, earned a “not all that real (yet)” rating. Orr praised young defensive talent and Deshaun Watson’s recent play but warned that the team’s turnover rate and limited offensive explosiveness remain concerns, especially against stronger opponents.

The Minnesota Vikings, 3–0, received a “perfectly normal amount of real” rating. Orr noted quarterback Kyler Murray’s mixed debut, the team’s negative yard differential despite the win, and the strength of its defense and special-teams units, which have contributed significantly to field position and scoring.

San Francisco 49ers, also 3–0, were deemed “not all that real.” Orr cited injuries to key players such as Nick Bosa and Mike Evans, and warned that the team’s success may be fragile given a thin roster and a schedule that includes tougher defensive opponents later in the season.

Kansas City Chiefs, at 3–0, earned an “extremely real” rating. Orr highlighted the impact of a revamped offensive scheme, Travis Kelce’s improved run-blocking, and a secondary that performed well despite losing top cornerbacks, suggesting the Chiefs are a legitimate contender.

Overall, Orr’s analysis suggests that while several teams have started strong, the durability of those performances varies, with the Raiders and Chiefs appearing most likely to sustain their early success.