BLS Anticipates Significant Downward Revision in Employment Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to announce a substantial downward revision of approximately 800,000 jobs for the period ending March 2025, indicating a weaker labor market than previously reported.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its preliminary benchmark revision on September 9, which is anticipated to reveal that the U.S. economy added approximately 800,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the 12-month period ending March 2025. This adjustment suggests that average monthly job growth during this timeframe was around 100,000, a decline from the previously estimated 165,000.
Economists attribute the labor market's deceleration to factors such as increased tariff costs and the adoption of artificial intelligence technologies aimed at reducing labor expenses. Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, commented, "The labor market will likely look even worse after the release of the preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls on Sept. 9."
The forthcoming revision may also influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. With the labor market showing signs of weakening, there is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider cutting interest rates in its upcoming meeting.
In a related development, President Donald Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead the BLS. Antoni has previously criticized the agency's data collection methods and suggested suspending monthly jobs reports in favor of more accurate quarterly data. His nomination has raised concerns among economists about the potential politicization of the agency.
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