Trump's approval hits record low as Democrats favored in upcoming midterms

Donald Trump’s net approval rating has slipped to a record low of minus 23, according to Nate Silver’s aggregation of national polls, with 60.4% of respondents disapproving of his performance and 37.4% approving. The rating is the poorest for any U.S. president at this point in a term since Harry Truman, whose lowest was minus 11.6 during his first term.

Silver’s midterm election forecast model gives Democrats a 69% chance of winning the Senate and a 91% chance of taking the House, up from 57% and 86% respectively in mid-September. The generic ballot shows Democrats ahead by 9.1 points, a margin that would be sufficient to secure a House majority and, with a double-digit lead, a Senate majority.

The model notes that if the disruption from the Iran conflict persists through the election, along with higher fuel prices and inflation, Republicans could lose control of both chambers, potentially by large margins. Conversely, a de-escalation and falling petrol prices could improve Republican prospects, especially in the Senate.

Trump’s approval on specific issues remains deeply negative, with net scores of minus 13 on immigration, minus 28 on trade, minus 32 on the economy and minus 46 on inflation. Support for the Iran war is also low, at a net minus 24.4.

In the Senate, Democrats lead by two to five points in contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, while Republicans trail an independent in Nebraska and hold only a narrow lead in Kansas. A notable exception is Maine, where incumbent Republican Susan Collins currently holds a small lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson.

Economic indicators show gasoline prices averaging $4.48 per gallon, after a recent rise in commodity oil prices. Analysts suggest a lag between oil price movements and retail fuel costs, implying a possible short-term decline in pump prices.

"The generic ballot gives Democrats a 51.4–42.3 lead over Republicans, a 9.1-point margin," the forecast model notes.

The outlook remains contingent on economic conditions and voter turnout patterns, with Democrats expected to benefit from higher participation in the low-turnout midterm election.