Republican Polls Show Declining Support for Trump Ahead of Midterms
Recent surveys indicate that President Trump’s approval has fallen among independents and Republicans, raising concerns for the party as the midterm elections approach.
Recent polling data suggest President Donald Trump’s popularity is slipping among both independents and members of his own party as the 2024 midterm elections near. A CNN poll released this week recorded a 25 percent approval rating among independents, a shift of 86 points since the start of the election cycle. An University of Massachusetts-Amherst survey found that Republican approval of Trump has dropped 14 points since March, with one in six former Trump voters saying they would not support him again.
"It’s really important to look at the ways in which co-partisans are evaluating the president, and [Trump] has witnessed a decreasing number of those in his camp assessing him positively," said Tatishe Nteta, provost of political science at UMass-Amherst. He added that the decline signals a potential risk for the Republican Party in the upcoming contests.
Issue-specific polls also show low favorability for Trump’s policies. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that only 17 percent of voters approve of his handling of the cost-of-living crisis, while 34 percent back his strikes against Iran, and 82 percent doubt his claim that the war will end soon.
The broader impact on Republican candidates appears significant. An NPR/Marist poll indicated that voters prefer Democratic congressional candidates over Republican ones by a margin of about 12 points, mirroring the same issue-by-issue patterns seen in other surveys.
"One of the ways you can get at whether or not this is going to be important is to look at enthusiasm," Nteta said, noting a clear enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters for the midterms. He contrasted this with the pre-2024 election environment, when Republicans were more energized around Trump’s candidacy.
Democratic strategists acknowledge the challenges but point to the GOP’s larger cash reserves and planned advertising efforts as factors that could mitigate the effect of Trump’s declining ratings. Bhavik Lathia, a Democratic strategist, cited high fuel prices and the ongoing conflict with Iran as additional concerns influencing voter sentiment.