Underdogs win only 16% of games so far in 2026 college football season

Underdogs have recorded just 25 wins against 132 losses in FBS contests this season, a 15.9% win rate that trails the 26.5% achieved last year. The figure is also lower than the 26.1% average recorded from 2021 to 2025. When the point spread is 7.5 points or less, underdogs are 20-39 (33.9% win rate), compared with a 39.3% average over the same period.

Analysts note that the early-season sample size may be influencing the numbers, but the trend could also reflect a widening gap between top programs and lower-ranked teams. The lack of upsets has left some columnists with a poor personal record in their weekly “Upset of the Week” selections.

Among the week’s highlighted matchups, Ole Miss travels to face No. 21 Florida after recent victories over Louisville and LSU. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with a suggestion to bet the over on 58.5 points.

No. 20 Oregon visits No. 12 USC, a contest that historically produces high totals; the recommendation is to take the over on 61.5 points.

Iowa, ranked No. 17, heads to Ann Arbor to play No. 18 Michigan. Iowa has been a road underdog in ten conference games against ranked opponents since 2014, posting a 1-9 record and averaging 12.5 points in those contests. The suggested wager is an under on Iowa’s team total of 16.5 points.

Nebraska, favored by 5.5 points at Michigan State, is advised against as a road favorite based on head coach Matt Rhule’s limited success in such situations.

Colorado’s recent 41-7 loss to Baylor and off-field issues are cited as reasons to favor Baylor by 9.5 points.

Finally, the “Upset of the Week” pick is Sacramento State (+155) against UMass, noting the travel distance and recent performance of both teams.

These observations combine statistical trends with game-specific analysis to guide betting considerations for the upcoming week.