Xi and Trump to meet in Washington amid trade surge and domestic challenges

President Xi Jinping will travel to Washington for a summit with President Donald Trump on September 24, with trade and the extension of a 2023 "gentleman's agreement" expected to dominate talks. Analysts say Xi is unlikely to make major concessions, preferring to use the meeting to preserve the current trade truce while China’s export sector continues to expand.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in New York on Sunday to discuss possible agreements on artificial-intelligence safeguards and trade in non-sensitive goods, signaling a modest agenda compared with earlier U.S. vows to use tariffs to correct a perceived trade imbalance.

China’s global trade surplus is on track to top $1 trillion for a second consecutive year, and more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories it sells to the United States have grown year-over-year. A delegation of Chinese business leaders, including firms under U.S. regulatory review, is expected to accompany Xi.

"Xi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman's agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself," said Jon Czin, a foreign-policy expert at the Brookings Institution.

U.S. officials acknowledge limited prospects for breakthroughs. The Trump administration, dealing with a costly conflict in Iran and declining domestic support, appears focused on maintaining stability in the bilateral relationship.

"Both Xi and Trump feel it's quite helpful to have stability in the relationship so that they can focus on more pressing things," said Ruby Osman, senior geopolitical researcher at the Tony Blair Institute.

Taiwan remains a sensitive issue. Trump has described a pending $14 billion arms package for the island as a negotiating chip, while Chinese officials have indicated that concessions on Taiwan could be linked to broader trade and agricultural discussions.

"If you accommodate our concern on the Taiwan issue, then we would be willing to accommodate your concerns on other issues," said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai's Fudan University.

U.S. attempts to pressure China over Iran, including threats of secondary sanctions, have not yet altered Beijing’s trade with Tehran, according to officials.

The summit is expected to reaffirm the existing trade truce rather than launch new initiatives, reflecting both leaders’ preference for a predictable bilateral framework amid broader geopolitical challenges.