AfD projected to win Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as CDU polls at historic low

Exit polls from Germany's public broadcaster indicate that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set to win the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with roughly 38% of the vote, two weeks after the party achieved its best result in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is projected at about 5%, just enough to retain representation in the largely rural state and marking a historically low performance for the party.

In Berlin, the left-wing Die Linke leads with 26% according to the same polls, followed by the CDU and the Greens, while the AfD is expected to finish fourth with around 13.5%.

Merz described the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern outcome as a “disaster” but emphasized the need for reforms to address economic challenges and social divisions, stating that “the answer cannot be to go back to the good old days.”

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel told reporters that the party is “clearly the new people’s party in Germany,” adding that the CDU has been “strongly damaged” and questioning Merz’s future as chancellor.

The results follow a recent AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where the party secured 44% of the vote, intensifying speculation about Merz's tenure. The AfD’s campaign in the eastern states has focused on issues such as immigration, military aid to Ukraine, and closer ties with Russia, drawing comparisons to a “America First” approach.

The election also tested the popularity of Social Democratic Party leader Manuela Schwesig, the incumbent state premier, who warned of “dark clouds” if the AfD were to advance. The SPD is projected just behind the AfD with about 36.5% of the vote.

In Berlin, housing affordability dominated the campaign, reflecting concerns over rising rents and a projected shortage of homes in the coming years.