Saudi Arabia faces mounting setbacks in Yemen as Houthi forces advance

The Houthi movement has captured significant territory along Yemen's Red Sea coast and is now pushing toward Marib, the last major stronghold of forces loyal to the internationally recognized Yemeni government and a hub for the country's oil and gas facilities. Recapturing Marib would deprive the government of its remaining northern population center and revenue source, and could open a route to the oil-rich eastern provinces of Shabwa and Hadhramawt.

Government troops have managed limited counter-offensives, retaking positions northwest of Marib and repelling two major Houthi assaults last week, as well as making advances in western Taiz. Analysts note that the coalition’s difficulties stem from structural problems, including a lack of unified command and coordination among the five formations defending the coast, as highlighted by a reconstruction of the Mokha battle that revealed a fabricated Houthi withdrawal order using an AI-cloned voice.

Yemen’s defence minister, Taher al-Aqili, previously acknowledged that while the coalition has established a common payroll and biometric ID system, it still lacks shared training and a joint operations centre. The removal of United Arab Emirates forces from Yemen last year did not resolve these command issues or reconcile the competing interests within the Presidential Leadership Council.

Compounding the military setbacks, Saudi Arabia confirmed that drones that damaged its East-West oil pipeline originated from Iraq, coinciding with a wave of Houthi strikes on Saudi targets. Reports indicate that Houthi representatives coordinated with Iraqi militia operatives to plan earlier attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.

Regional diplomatic efforts have stalled; a meeting in Oman intended to address shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was cancelled after Saudi objections to wording that suggested the strait was not an international waterway. The United States, with roughly 200 personnel in Saudi Arabia providing intelligence and targeting support, has offered limited assistance, and the U.S. president declined to commit forces against the Houthis.

Turkey and Pakistan, parties to a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, have not yet taken an active role, citing the need for treaty ratification and operational integration. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the Houthis as Iranian proxies, a claim Iran’s foreign ministry rejected, asserting the group takes orders from no one.

Since the 2022 truce, the Houthis have continued to demand compensation of more than $57 billion for oil-sector losses, the lifting of blockades on their airports and seaports, and a share of Yemen’s oil and gas revenues. Analysts argue that, given the limited impact of previous large-scale military campaigns, negotiations may be the only viable short-term path forward, though any settlement would likely strengthen the group’s capacity to threaten Saudi energy interests in the future.