IDF readies plans for possible US-Iran escalation as diplomatic talks continue

Israel's defence forces are developing operational plans for two potential escalation scenarios with Iran as U.S. Vice President JD Vance leads diplomatic efforts aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, restoring nuclear inspections and easing the U.S. blockade on Iranian assets. The first scenario envisions a large-scale U.S. offensive targeting Iranian infrastructure and military sites, while the second anticipates a surprise Iranian attack on American interests and bases in the region, including those hosting U.S. personnel and aircraft.

Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir and senior staff have reviewed these plans in recent days, prompting Israel Air Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Omer Tishler and Operations Directorate head Maj.-Gen. Itzik Cohen to miss the IDF Commanders' Championship. The assessments also consider the risk of broader regional involvement through coordinated actions, misunderstandings or miscalculations.

Israeli officials assess that President Donald Trump prefers to avoid a military confrontation and would seek a diplomatic settlement. However, they note that Iranian leadership may interpret Washington's diplomatic overtures as a sign of weakness and view the recent U.S. midterm elections as a form of political "revenge" against the White House, according to security assessments.

In parallel, U.S. forces have carried out limited strikes on Iranian military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting air-defence systems and missile launchers on Qeshm Island and reportedly on Larak Island. Iranian forces have responded against American assets in the area, though the full scope of the strikes has not been independently verified.

Israeli security officials also addressed reports of a heated internal debate over a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran. They said the proposal, allegedly supported by the Mossad chief, was raised and dismissed quickly, describing the discussion as professional and respectful.

"The option was raised and then dropped just as quickly," security officials said. "The discussion was professional and respectful. There were disagreements on some issues, but no arguments that got out of proportion."