Democrats Gain Congressional Control, Raising Oversight of Trump’s Foreign Policy
With Democrats winning majorities in both the Senate and the House, experts say President Donald Trump will retain broad foreign-policy authority but face increased congressional scrutiny over the Iran and Ukraine conflicts.
Democrats secured majorities in the Senate and the House, giving the party greater ability to oversee spending and legislation related to President Donald Trump’s foreign-policy agenda. Analysts told CNBC that while the president will continue to direct diplomatic and military actions, congressional oversight is likely to intensify.
"We are going to see a president that is somewhat constrained on matters of oversight and investigation, but on foreign policy, he does still retain a lot of latitude," said Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's U.S. and North America Programme.
Rapp noted that the conflict in Iran, which began after joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, is a central issue for the new Congress. She said Democrats may use their control of appropriations to limit funding for U.S. military operations related to the Iran war, though any binding restriction would require enough votes to overcome a presidential veto.
"Remember that this election changes the Congress; it does not change the president," said J.C. Lintzenich, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He added that foreign policy remains the president’s domain, but Congress can influence funding for Ukraine and other initiatives required by law.
Berenberg’s chief economist Holger Schmieding warned that the final two years of Trump’s term could see continued geopolitical tension, predicting a possible final round of bombing in Iran and a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by 2027. He cautioned that the president may pursue “dangerous geopolitical adventures” without guaranteed congressional funding.
Schmieding also identified the Russia-Ukraine war as a “tail risk,” suggesting that Trump might pressure Ukraine toward concessions, though he lacks support from many Republicans, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This internal party dynamic could limit any drastic policy shift.
Overall, experts expect more vigorous congressional oversight of funding and legislation, while President Trump retains the constitutional authority to conduct foreign policy and manage ongoing conflicts.