One Nation edges ahead of Labor in Victoria poll, Liberal Party leads overall

A Lighthouse tracking poll conducted by News Corp Australia’s Growth Intelligence Centre indicates that One Nation has moved ahead of the Labor Party in primary vote intentions, with 23% support compared with Labor’s 22%. The Liberal Party, led by Jess Wilson, remains in the lead with 31% of respondents.

The poll records a three-point rise for One Nation and a two-point decline for Labor since the previous survey, while the Greens held steady at 14%. About 53% of voters said they were very certain about their choice, and 10% remained undecided.

If the poll’s voting intentions were replicated at the ballot, the result would represent a sharp reversal from Labor’s 2022 landslide, when the party secured 56 of the 87 lower-house seats.

Economic concerns and law-and-order issues dominate voter priorities, with two-thirds of Victorians rating the Labor government poorly on both fronts. Across decided voters, cost of living, healthcare, crime and safety, and utility prices are the top issues.

The campaign has seen both major parties use AI-generated content. Labor leader Ben Carroll faced criticism after a video posted to the party’s Instagram account featured AI-generated depictions of Liberal leader Jess Wilson and One Nation leader Warren Pickering. When asked about claims that the Liberal Party intended to “Americanise” the health system, Carroll cited Wilson’s earlier comment that there was “nothing wrong with Americanising our health system.” Wilson later clarified that she had said “not at all” to the suggestion.

In the lead-up to early voting, which opens on November 18, Wilson announced the launch of an election bus dubbed the “Jess express,” bearing the slogan “dodging Labor’s potholes” and a promise to fix them properly.