Texas Pulse poll shows Democrat Talarico leading Republican Paxton by six points

A Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8-11 among 614 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the Texas Senate race, a six-point advantage that exceeds the poll's 4.3-point margin of error. The survey also showed Talarico favored by 64% of independent voters compared with 24% for Paxton, a 40-point gap that has widened since July.

Talarico's favorability rating rose to 50% positive and 39% negative, while Paxton's fell to 38% positive and 55% negative. When asked who they expect to win, 48% of respondents said Talarico and 45% said Paxton. The poll noted that the share of voters with no opinion of Talarico dropped from 25% in June to 10%.

"This movement can also be seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 40 points, 64-24%, up from 23 points, 53-30% in July," said ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren.

"Paxton’s Senate bid is being undermined by defections from within his own party. While nearly all Democrats say they are supporting Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans say they are supporting Paxton," Hendren added.

Other September polls have shown a tighter race, with Emerson College reporting a 47%-46% split, Mason-Dixon at 46%-43%, SoCal Strategies at 50%-45%, AARP at 48%-44%, and N+ Univision at 48%-43% for Talarico and Paxton respectively.