Potential record El Niño may bring wetter winter and fewer hurricanes to North Carolina

The Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that a very strong El Niño is more than 90% likely to develop during the fall and winter, with a near-70% chance it will reach an intensity not seen in NOAA records since 1950. If the event reaches the projected 2.5-2.6°C above normal on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, it could set a new record.

"We never know exactly what's going to occur, but in North Carolina during an El Niño, we tend to see wetter weather," said Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "So we can expect more rainfall over North Carolina this winter."

Long explained that weakening trade winds and warm water pulses across the Pacific are driving the current intensification. A strong El Niño typically raises vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which can disrupt tropical cyclones. The increased shear has already contributed to relatively quiet Atlantic activity in August despite warm sea surface temperatures.

"For hurricanes, that's kind of a killer. The winds in upper levels just destroy the structure of the hurricane, and so they can't really get going," Long said.

While the phenomenon does not eliminate hurricane risk, it shifts odds toward reduced Atlantic storm activity. In the winter, El Niño usually brings wetter conditions to the southern United States, which could help alleviate North Carolina's recent drought that left reservoirs low and prompted water-use restrictions.

"I know that you guys have had a very severe drought that's been long-lasting, so hopefully this will help decrease that burden on the water supply," Long added. "But again, no guarantee, but it does greatly increase the odds that we'll see some wetter weather."

The increased precipitation also raises the likelihood of winter snow or ice if cold air coincides with storms. Long cautioned that even a record-strength El Niño does not guarantee record impacts, as each event influences weather probabilities rather than dictating exact outcomes. NOAA expects the El Niño to continue strengthening through the fall and peak in the coming winter.