Progressive Candidates Test Electability in Midwestern Democratic Primaries

Democratic primaries in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are becoming a proving ground for whether progressive outsiders can win in swing districts and states. In Michigan's 7th Congressional District, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, a retired Navy SEAL and climate activist William Lawrence are challenging the Republican incumbent in a seat the party hopes to flip. Lawrence argues that voters are “fed up” and ready for change, positioning his campaign around economic issues, opposition to AI data centers and keeping money in the United States.

The contests reflect a broader debate within the Democratic Party about the best path to victory in purple districts. Lis Smith, a Democratic consultant, said primary voters are “rejecting people who reek of playing it safe” and appear willing to take a risk on candidates whose positions might be liabilities in a general election. In the Senate primary, former public-health official Abdul El-Sayed leads polls with an anti-establishment message, while four-term Rep. Haley Stevens is backed by party leaders and viewed as more electable in November.

Center for American Progress president Neera Tanden cautioned that far-left candidates have succeeded in safe, blue districts but have yet to prove they can beat Republicans in competitive states. Progressive Change Campaign Committee co-founder Adam Green countered that the conventional wisdom on electability is outdated and that a primary win for El-Sayed could signal that “you can buck the corporate interests and still defeat them.”

In Wisconsin, former Democratic Socialists of America member Francesca Hong leads the gubernatorial primary, emphasizing data-center policy and cross-party outreach. Former Republican governor Scott Walker warned that passionate candidates can attract swing voters, noting that authenticity may pose a challenge for Republicans.

The outcomes of these primaries could shape the Democratic Party’s strategy for the 2024 midterms and influence candidate selection for future national races.