Analysis Shows Declining Enthusiasm Among GOP Voters Ahead of Midterms
A study by a conservative super PAC finds that one in five Republican voters in key states may stay home or vote Democratic, while polling indicates Republicans are less motivated than in 2018.
A recent analysis by the Americans for Prosperity Action super PAC indicates that about 20% of reliable Republican voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Michigan are considering either abstaining or supporting Democratic candidates in the upcoming November elections. The report cites reduced enthusiasm compared with the 2018 midterm cycle.
In rural Iowa, longtime Trump supporter Lance Sulentic, 56, said the past three presidential elections were “the worst three mistakes I’ve ever made in my life,” adding that President Donald Trump failed to deliver on promised policies such as lower gas prices, cheaper food, reduced energy costs, rebate checks, an end to new wars, a border wall and large-scale deportations.
“We voted for Trump, and he did the opposite of what he said he was going to do,” Sulentic said.
Mitchell Brown, a partner at polling firm Cygnal, noted that Republican voters appear less motivated to turn out than they were ahead of the 2018 midterms, while Democratic voters remain similarly energized.
“It’s not that the Democrats are outperforming a topline number that we’d expect; it’s that Republicans are underperforming,” Brown said.
A recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed a narrow preference for Democratic candidates over Republicans, 48% to 45%, if a House election were held today. Brown warned that men under 40 are the most vulnerable segment of the Republican base, citing concerns about the economy and prices.
The White House and the Republican National Committee did not respond to requests for comment. Republican strategists said the trend could shift as the midterm campaign progresses.