CNN data analyst warns Democrats' narrow lead may jeopardize House control
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CNN's chief data analyst said the Democratic Party's four-point advantage in generic congressional polls is considerably lower than in previous midterm cycles, raising concerns about its ability to secure a House majority.
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten said new polling shows Democrats holding a four-point lead over Republicans on generic U.S. House ballots, a margin he described as a warning sign for the party. He noted that the lead is smaller than the 12-point and 10-point advantages the party enjoyed in the 2006 and 2018 midterms, both of which occurred under Republican presidents.
"Yes, they’re ahead. But they’re ahead... by only 4 points, which is significantly less than what we saw in 2018 and 2006, when Democrats took back the House," Enten said. Enten added that a four-point edge places Democrats "right on the edge of even getting that majority," and that despite President Donald Trump's low popularity in polls, the party has not built a cushion that would ensure a House win. He cited polling from CNBC and The Washington Post in his analysis.