Iranian Clerics Near Decision on Khamenei's Successor Amidst Tensions

Iran's clerical establishment is on the verge of selecting a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was recently killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts, comprising approximately 90 senior clerics, is expected to make an announcement imminently, potentially as soon as Sunday. This decision comes amid heightened tensions, with both Israel and the U.S. indicating intentions to target individuals involved in the selection process.

The role of the supreme leader, established after the 1979 revolution by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, holds significant authority in Iran, overseeing the president and parliament. The new leader will inherit this position during a period of instability, posing immediate challenges in asserting control.

In accordance with the Iranian constitution, a new leader must be chosen within three months. Until then, a temporary leadership council has been formed, consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Guardians Council member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, and Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei. The Assembly of Experts has been conducting discussions online due to ongoing strikes, with their choice likely influenced by senior figures who maintained power under Khamenei, notably Ali Larijani, a significant powerbroker.

Several candidates have emerged for the leadership position. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, is considered a leading contender, despite the regime's general opposition to hereditary succession. Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the revolution's founder, may appeal to those favoring a reformist approach. Other candidates include Arafi and Mohseni-Ejei, known for their hardline views, as well as senior clerics Ahmad Alamolhoda and Mohsen Araki, both influential in politics. Former President Hassan Rouhani is also a potential candidate but lacks support from hardliners.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a pivotal force in Iranian politics, is expected to influence the selection of the new leader. However, their capacity has been weakened by recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that have decimated their leadership. The IRGC, distinct from the regular military, answers solely to the supreme leader and holds both political and economic power in Iran.

While Iranians participate in elections for the president and parliament, trust in these processes has eroded over time. The Guardians Council controls candidate selection, limiting options to those aligned with ruling authorities. Consequently, President Pezeshkian's influence on the current situation remains uncertain, especially following a recent retraction regarding the war's management. The ongoing conflict and clerical dynamics present a complex landscape for selecting the new supreme leader.