New Hampshire rises on list of Senate seats most likely to flip as campaign heats up
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A new poll shows the New Hampshire Senate race tightening, moving the state up two spots on a list of contests most likely to change party control ahead of the November election.
A University of New Hampshire poll released last month found Republican former senator John E. Sununu at 45% and Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas at 43% among likely voters, eliminating a clear lead in the race. The shift moved New Hampshire up two places on a ranking of Senate seats most likely to change party control, highlighting growing uncertainty for Democrats who need to hold the seat to maintain a Senate majority.
Pappas, who won the Democratic primary with 65% of the vote, warned that the state’s status as a “purple” battleground makes the contest critical for the party’s overall math. "We have to hold this race for the rest of the math to work for Democrats to take back the Senate majority," he told CNN.
Republican groups have earmarked more than $31 million for advertising through September and the election, including over $12 million from the Senate Leadership Fund and $10 million from the Trump-linked No Going Back PAC. Democrats have allocated about $18.5 million for the same period.
New Hampshire’s independent electorate, which has supported Democratic presidential candidates in the last six cycles but has not elected a GOP senator since 2010, could prove decisive. The race’s outcome will influence the broader balance of power, as Democrats must flip four of six GOP-held seats while defending three of their own to secure a majority.