Ukraine’s Counteroffensives Reduce Russia’s Net Territorial Gains Since March 2026, ISW Reports
The Institute for the Study of War says Ukrainian forces have largely neutralized Russia’s advances made after March 2026, though limited Russian gains persist in some sectors.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on September 12 that Ukrainian operations in late 2025 and throughout 2026 have curbed Russia’s battlefield initiative, marking the first sustained shift since Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in August 2024. ISW estimates that since March, Ukrainian counteroffensives have reduced Russia’s net territorial gains to almost zero, with notable actions in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka and Lyman directions.
In the Kupiansk sector, Ukrainian troops reclaimed positions inside and around the city and repelled subsequent Russian attempts to retake them, according to the institute. Counteroffensive efforts also stopped Russian advances toward the Dnipropetrovsk region and eliminated a salient that had threatened the northern flank of Sloviansk and the broader defensive line in Donetsk.
Russia continues to make limited but notable advances near Kostiantynivka and east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, where it is still allocating resources to sustain offensive momentum. ISW notes that neither side currently holds an uncontested initiative across the front, as Ukrainian actions increasingly hinder Russia’s ability to convert local gains into lasting territorial control.
The institute added that further Russian mobilization could aim to restore its capacity for territorial seizure, though it is uncertain whether such a campaign would significantly alter the battlefield dynamics. Earlier ISW analysis projected that, at Russia’s August 2026 rate of advance, it would take until October 2032 to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk, far beyond Moscow’s stated goal of completing the region’s takeover by the end of 2026.