Trump links end of Iran conflict to upcoming US midterms amid rising costs
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President Donald Trump says the war with Iran will end after the November midterm elections, while analysts note the conflict’s economic impact is affecting voter sentiment.
President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the seven-month war with Iran will conclude “immediately after” the U.S. midterm elections in November, framing the conflict as an attempt by Tehran to influence the vote.
Trump’s claim follows weeks of sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and a naval blockade aimed at restricting Iran’s trade. In late August, the United States expanded economic pressure by threatening secondary sanctions on Iran’s trading partners.
"It was a statement that was more likely meant for an internal [domestic] audience," said Ali Alavi, a lecturer on Iran at SOAS University of London, referring to Trump’s prediction of an Iranian capitulation after the election.
The war’s cost is being felt domestically. The American Automobile Association reported the national average gasoline price at $4.27 per gallon, up nearly 30 % from a year earlier. Trump’s approval rating has fallen from the high-40s in January 2025 to the low-mid 30s. A 2026 LendingTree survey found that 29 % of buy-now-pay-later users had used the service to purchase groceries, and 47 % reported at least one late payment in the past year. Economists at the University of Michigan linked rising fuel prices and inflation to declining consumer confidence.
Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme, said Iran appears prepared for a prolonged conflict and may be using the war to destabilise the U.S. midterms.
Top Democrats, including Senate leader Chuck Schumer, have called for an end to the hostilities. H.A. Hellyer, an analyst at the Center for American Progress, said the key factor for voters is turnout, noting that “the price of things, like the petrol they get from the pump, matter – and it’s this that might swing the election.”
Both the United States and Israel face political pressure as the November 3 congressional midterms approach, while Iran, governed by an unelected Supreme Leader, has no comparable electoral deadline. Vakil added that Iran’s goal is to survive long enough to extract diplomatic concessions and demonstrate leverage over global economic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.