US and Iran resume limited strikes, keeping Strait of Hormuz in stalemate

The United States and Iran resumed limited military exchanges this week, ending a month-long pause in hostilities and returning the Strait of Hormuz to a fragile stalemate. U.S. forces struck Iranian targets on Tuesday, prompting retaliatory attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, despite a warning from President Donald Trump that any Iranian response would be met with a stronger U.S. strike.

Analysts noted that the recent attacks have been confined to military assets rather than civilian or energy infrastructure, and that Tehran has not renewed strikes against Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. "Neither side wants to return to full-scale war," said Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, adding that Iran’s disruption of tanker traffic and U.S. economic pressure are becoming unsustainable for both parties.

The U.S. escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the waterway, a wartime high, according to officials familiar with the operation. However, global oil prices remain elevated, and U.S. gasoline averages $4.14 per gallon, up from $3.19 a year earlier. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983 as the administration deploys emergency supplies.

U.S. officials indicated that the war has depleted significant portions of missile-defense inventories, with roughly four-fifths of THAAD interceptors and about half of Patriot missiles used since the conflict began. President Trump claimed the United States still possesses "massive amounts" of munitions, though some are in tighter supply.

Public opinion in the United States remains critical; a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showed more than two-thirds of respondents disapprove of the president’s handling of the conflict, and his overall approval rating has fallen to 32%. Military leaders have reportedly warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that extending large-scale operations against Iran could strain U.S. capabilities elsewhere.

In Iran, inflation has surged to 66% over the past year, and shortages of food and medicine are reported. Experts said Tehran may seek to intensify pressure on the United States to force a resolution, as the Iranian regime perceives prolonged economic pressure as untenable. "Iran will continue trying to disrupt tanker traffic and challenge the U.S. effort to establish a new reality in the Strait," wrote Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Israel Defense Forces’ Iran branch, on X.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated willingness to return to negotiations if the United States resumes commitments under a June memorandum of understanding, while President Trump stated he prefers the current position, describing it as giving the United States "almost total control of the Hormuz Strait".