Experts say US-Iran conflict shows no clear path to settlement
Analysts note that recent strikes and new U.S. sanctions have not shifted either side’s strategy, leaving the prospect of a negotiated end to the conflict uncertain.
The United States and Iran continued to exchange strikes this week, and the likelihood of an imminent agreement to end the hostilities remains low, analysts said. The latest U.S. move involves a broad economic blockade aimed at pressuring Iran to halt attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route that has been effectively closed since the conflict began in February.
U.S. officials hope that the new sanctions will weaken Iran’s position enough to bring it to the negotiating table, while maintaining a limited flow of oil through the strait to avoid a sharp rise in global oil prices. However, experts note that the administration’s strategic objectives in Iran are still being reassessed, and the current approach appears to focus on sustaining the blockade and conducting periodic strikes to limit Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping.
Iran is expected to demand significant concessions before agreeing to any settlement, a stance that analysts say could be politically untenable for the U.S. administration. The recent attacks are not seen as altering Tehran’s calculations; instead, Iran is likely to continue a pattern of economic pressure and intermittent strikes, responding proportionately to avoid a broader conflict.
The economic squeeze is already harming Iran’s already strained economy, but analysts argue that sanctions are unlikely to compel Tehran to change its approach, especially as countries such as China and Russia continue trading with Iran and are unlikely to support unilateral U.S. measures. Some experts suggest that a return to the memorandum of understanding negotiated in June, or a new concession from the United States, could provide an off-ramp for both sides.
If a renewed agreement were reached, it could weaken Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and open the country to broader economic engagement, potentially leading to gradual political changes. However, such a shift would require sustained diplomatic effort and strategic patience, which analysts say are currently in short supply.