Supreme Court poised to decide jurisdiction over prediction markets
The U.S. Supreme Court may hear a case that could determine whether states can regulate sports-related prediction markets as gambling, after conflicting appellate rulings.
The United States Supreme Court is expected to consider a dispute over the regulatory authority of prediction markets. New Jersey has petitioned the high court to reverse a March 2026 decision by the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, which held that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts offered by the platform Kalshi.
In contrast, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a ruling last week that reached the opposite conclusion, creating a split among federal appellate courts. Legal analysts say the divergence increases the likelihood that the Supreme Court will grant review.
If the Court takes the case, its ruling would establish nationwide precedent on whether gambling through prediction markets falls under state gambling laws or federal commodity regulation.