Kpler reports average daily oil flow through Strait of Hormuz at 8.6 million barrels

Kpler, a maritime analytics company, updated its estimate of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz to an average of 8.6 million barrels per day. The revised figure includes "dark transits"—vessels that disable transponders—and clandestine ship-to-ship transfers that were not captured in earlier counts.

Earlier estimates from Kpler and other trackers placed daily flow closer to 5 million barrels, a discrepancy that prompted comparisons with statements from U.S. officials who cited higher numbers. The firm explained that many tankers turn off tracking equipment days or weeks before entering the strait, and some cargo is transferred to other ships to avoid potential threats, causing delays in detection.

Kpler said its methodology now back-dates confirmed movements to the likely transit date, filling gaps in historical data rather than inflating current figures. The company noted that while the average flow has risen since a June memorandum of understanding, it remains well below the roughly 20 million barrels per day that moved through the strait before the regional conflict.

"When a movement is confirmed late, it is backdated to its likely transit or Gulf of Oman lifting date rather than booked on the day of confirmation, so revisions fill in history where the barrels actually moved instead of spiking the present," Kpler said.

"Movements that official channels have verified through their own sources may simply still be waiting on evidence here, which is why recent figures are floors still filling in rather than settled values," the firm added.