Iceland votes on EU accession amid U.S. Arctic security concerns

Icelanders will cast votes on Saturday in a referendum asking whether the country should resume negotiations to join the European Union. The advisory poll, which could lead to formal accession talks and a second referendum if approved, is expected to be closely contested, with opinion polls showing the electorate nearly split.

The vote comes as the Arctic region gains strategic importance for critical minerals, new shipping routes and U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland. President Donald Trump has repeatedly advocated for U.S. control of Greenland, a stance that some observers say also applies to Iceland, which is already an independent nation.

"All of the arguments put forth by the U.S. president for why it would be necessary for the U.S. to acquire Greenland actually equally applied to Iceland. The only difference is that Iceland is formally an independent country," said Eiríkur Bergmann, a politics professor at Bifröst University.

Iceland, a founding NATO member without its own armed forces, sits on the GIUK Gap, a naval choke point linking the Arctic to the Atlantic. Bergmann added that many Icelanders are now questioning the relevance of the bilateral U.S. defense agreement that has been in place since 1951.

Domestic concerns dominate the debate. Experts note that the economy, sovereignty and the fishing industry are the primary issues for voters. Jon Danielsson of the London School of Economics said Iceland seeks the euro to escape its volatile currency and high interest rates, but doubts remain about whether EU membership would protect the country's vital fisheries.

Former prime minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir reiterated her opposition to EU accession, arguing that Iceland already enjoys close economic ties and high living standards within the European Economic Area and Schengen Area.

The current Social Democratic government, which first applied for EU membership in 2009 before suspending talks in 2013, is now pushing to restart the process before the next general election, due by August 2028. Steven Blockmans of the International Centre for Defence and Security said a successful referendum could provide the EU with a high-profile accession case after Brexit.

If approved, Iceland would join a bloc that values high GDP per capita and strong democratic performance, potentially bolstering the EU’s integration narrative.