Six-Month Assessment of the U.S.-Israel Conflict with Iran Highlights Shifts in Regional Power and U.S. Strategy

Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and targeted nuclear and military sites, the conflict remains unresolved, with a Pakistan-mediated cease-fire and a June memorandum of understanding halting large-scale fighting but not ending intermittent attacks.

CFR senior fellow Steven A. Cook argues that President Donald Trump’s expectation of a swift victory proved a miscalculation, leaving the United States facing a strategic defeat as navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is compromised and Iran’s incentive to pursue nuclear capabilities has increased. He notes that the president’s reliance on “Operation Economic Outcast” to inflict further economic pain may have limited impact, given Iran’s already strained economy and recent domestic protests.

Senior fellow Farah Pandith warns that the war has amplified Iran’s online propaganda, facilitating recruitment of vulnerable youth and encouraging attacks against U.S. and Israeli interests abroad. She says the conflict has generated a “dangerous content advantage” that could sustain extremist activity for years.

Adjunct senior fellow Henri J. Barkey observes that Turkey stands to gain regardless of the war’s outcome, citing the recent Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as evidence of Ankara’s expanding regional role. He notes that a U.S. defeat would enhance Turkey’s position as a counterweight in the Middle East, while a U.S. victory would also benefit Turkey by removing a longstanding rival.

Senior fellow Elliott Abrams points out that U.S.–Israel military cooperation has deepened, with U.S. Air Force assets now based in Israel and shared targeting data, even as diplomatic friction over broader regional issues persists. He adds that public support for Israel in the United States has declined, complicating the bilateral relationship.

Counterterrorism fellow Bruce Hoffman reports that Iran’s proxy network has shifted toward using pay-for-hire criminals and loosely affiliated groups rather than direct deployment of elite forces. He cites attacks in Europe and the United States, including a synagogue shooting in Michigan linked to Hezbollah motivations, and highlights the emergence of the “Foxtrot Network,” an Iranian-backed criminal enterprise.

Senior fellow Ed Husain notes that the war has eroded any residual sympathy for Iran among Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar moving closer to the United States. He emphasizes that while the Arabian Peninsula is currently safer, concerns remain over Iranian-backed Houthi activity in Yemen and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The analysis concludes that while Lebanon and Syria show tentative signs of rebuilding, their stability remains vulnerable to the broader regional turbulence caused by the ongoing conflict.