Wisconsin governor's race remains tight as poll shows narrow lead for Democrat Crowley

A Marquette Law School poll released on August 22 showed Democratic candidate David Crowley leading Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany by five points among likely voters, with 49% supporting Crowley and 44% backing Tiffany. The same poll found the race tied among registered voters, each at 44%, and 12% of respondents undecided.

The survey of 891 registered voters, conducted Aug. 12-20, reported higher enthusiasm among Republicans, with 55% saying they were "very enthusiastic" about voting compared with 49% of Democrats. The poll also noted President Donald Trump’s approval at a historic low, with 59% disapproving and 40% approving.

Political science professor Kathleen Dolan of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said the margin is within the poll’s ±4-point error and the race could remain close through November. > "Crowley’s lead of five percentage points in the MU poll looks like a lot, but it is almost within the margin of error for the poll, so, in reality, things could be neck and neck," she said.

Other recent polls have produced similar results: a Platform Communications poll gave Crowley a four-point edge (48%-44%), a GBAO poll a three-point edge (47%-44%), and an RMG/Napolitan survey a three-point edge (46%-43%). Forecasters label the contest a toss-up, though Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently shifted to a Lean Democratic rating.

Prediction markets also favor Crowley, assigning roughly an 80% probability of victory on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Both candidates are courting voters on the issue of AI data centers. A poll indicated 65% of likely voters support a temporary moratorium on new data centers. Crowley’s campaign says communities should decide locally and proposes renewable-energy requirements and bans on nondisclosure agreements. Tiffany has emphasized protecting ratepayers and ending taxpayer subsidies while allowing local input.

Wisconsin’s recent electoral history underscores its swing-state status, with narrow margins in the 2024 presidential contest and alternating party control of the governor’s office since 2014.