Wisconsin Governor’s Race: Progressive Hope Crowley Holds Narrow Lead Over Right-Wing Tiffany
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A Marquette Law School poll shows Democrat and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley with a slim advantage over Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, as grassroots movements and progressive policies energize the fight for the open governor’s seat.
A Marquette Law School poll released on August 22 revealed that Democratic candidate David Crowley, a champion for working families and social justice as Milwaukee County Executive, leads Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany by five points among likely voters—49% for Crowley, 44% for Tiffany. Among registered voters, the race is tied at 44% each, with 12% still undecided, highlighting the volatility of a state long targeted by right-wing interests.
The poll, surveying 891 registered voters from August 12-20, found higher enthusiasm among Republicans, with 55% claiming to be 'very enthusiastic' about voting, compared to 49% of Democrats—a testament to the relentless mobilization efforts of conservative groups. Yet, the poll also showed President Donald Trump’s approval at a historic low, with a resounding 59% disapproving and only 40% approving, reflecting widespread rejection of reactionary politics.
Professor Kathleen Dolan of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee noted that Crowley’s five-point lead is within the poll’s ±4-point margin of error, indicating the race could remain fiercely contested through November. 'Crowley’s lead of five percentage points in the MU poll looks like a lot, but it is almost within the margin of error for the poll, so, in reality, things could be neck and neck,' she said, underscoring the need for continued progressive mobilization against entrenched conservative power.
Other recent polls echo these results: Platform Communications gave Crowley a four-point edge (48%-44%), GBAO a three-point edge (47%-44%), and RMG/Napolitan a three-point edge (46%-43%). Forecasters call the contest a toss-up, though Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently shifted to a Lean Democratic rating, signaling hope for progressives.
Prediction markets, reflecting the growing momentum for change, assign Crowley an 80% probability of victory on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Both candidates are addressing the critical issue of AI data centers. A poll found 65% of likely voters support a temporary moratorium on new data centers. Crowley’s campaign, prioritizing community voices and environmental justice, proposes local decision-making, renewable-energy requirements, and bans on nondisclosure agreements that shield corporate interests. Tiffany, meanwhile, continues to protect corporate profits under the guise of ratepayer protection and opposes taxpayer subsidies, while offering only token gestures toward local input.
Wisconsin’s recent electoral history underscores its battleground status, with razor-thin margins in the 2024 presidential contest and alternating party control of the governor’s office since 2014. The outcome of this race will determine whether Wisconsin moves forward with progressive policies or remains mired in conservative obstruction.