Alaska Senate race features two candidates named Dan Sullivan, raising concerns for GOP

Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Dan J. Sullivan, a former school teacher, will both appear on Alaska's November U.S. Senate ballot. The latter secured 2.5% of the vote in last week’s all-party primary, placing him among the top four candidates alongside the incumbent and Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.

Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system that allows voters to list multiple preferences. If voters who chose Dan J. Sullivan also rank the incumbent higher than Peltola, his votes would transfer to the senator, reducing the risk of a split Republican vote. However, past elections show a significant share of voters do not rank backup candidates, leading to “exhausted” ballots. Analyses of recent House races indicate that roughly 28% of voters for an eliminated candidate failed to select a second choice, and only about half of those who did rank a logical backup.

Given the 2.5% primary share, experts estimate that perhaps half of those votes could ultimately support Sen. Sullivan, though the actual partisan composition of Dan J. Sullivan’s voters remains uncertain. Some data suggest he performed better in areas where Peltola was strong, implying possible strategic voting by Democrats.

Dan J. Sullivan told CNN he feels “vindicated that data seems to prove very little voter confusion between the senator and myself.” Election officials and GOP operatives are expected to increase voter education to differentiate the two candidates before the general election.

The outcome could be consequential, as Alaska is viewed as a potential swing seat for control of the Senate. Observers will also watch the fourth-place finisher from the primary, with Republican Gerald Heikes recently overtaking Democrat David Leslie for that slot, as another factor in a close contest.