Iran faces mounting pressure as control of Hormuz wanes and economy falters

Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz has weakened, with nearly 200 vessels passing through the waterway last week, a 400% increase over the previous fortnight, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center. Analysts say the surge, aided by U.S. naval escorts, indicates Iran no longer fully controls the strait.

At the same time, Iran's oil exports have fallen to near zero under renewed U.S. port blockades and sanctions, and satellite images show little activity at the Kharg Island oil hub. The economic strain is compounded by the United Arab Emirates' suspension of all trade with Iran following renewed missile fire, cutting off a key conduit for third-country goods.

"Iran depends heavily on the UAE, not because the UAE itself produces one-third of Iran's imports, but because it serves as a major gateway for Iran to access third-country goods and commercial infrastructure," said Mohammad Farzanegan, a professor of Middle Eastern economics at the University of Marburg.

U.S. Treasury officials have signaled further sanctions, while Iran's new security chief warned that any Gulf state joining the economic pressure would be treated as an enemy.

Within Iran, leaders are divided over the war. President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that mounting economic pressure is taking its toll and suggested the conflict must eventually end. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf echoed concerns that without financial circulation and growth, military power alone cannot secure progress.

The supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, reappeared in a brief video after a period of absence, but no further details were provided.