YouGov poll shows majority of Germans expect Chancellor Merz to leave office before 2029 election

A YouGov poll conducted between August 14 and 17 among 2,091 eligible voters indicates that more than half of Germans expect Chancellor Friedrich Merz to leave office before the next federal election in 2029. The survey shows 36% think he will remain chancellor through 2026 but step down before the 2029 vote, while 18% anticipate a replacement before the end of this year. Overall, 54% foresee his departure before the current parliamentary term ends.

Respondents also expressed doubts about Merz’s authority. Thirty-six percent said he has lost a great deal of influence within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and another 31% believed he has lost some authority. Only 1% thought his authority had increased significantly, and 5% said it had risen somewhat.

When asked who they consider better suited to serve as chancellor, 25% named North Rhine-Westphalia state premier Hendrik Wüst, also a CDU member, while just 9% chose Merz. A majority of 66% indicated they did not know who would be a better fit.

"We have to expect such events more often," Chancellor Merz said during a visit to the fire-affected Hürtgenwald region, referring to recent forest fires as a consequence of climate change.

The poll was commissioned by the German Press Agency dpa. It reflects ongoing public scrutiny of Merz’s leadership amid recent cabinet reshuffles and internal party changes.