YouGov poll: Germans Doubt Conservative Chancellor Merz’s Staying Power Amid Party Turmoil
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A YouGov survey reveals that 54% of Germans expect Chancellor Friedrich Merz to be ousted before the 2029 election, highlighting his declining authority within the CDU and the public’s disillusionment with conservative leadership.
A YouGov poll conducted between August 14 and 17 among 2,091 eligible voters exposes deep skepticism about Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s future, as more than half of Germans expect him to be pushed out before the next federal election in 2029. The survey shows that 36% believe Merz will cling to power until 2026 but will be forced to step down before 2029, while 18% anticipate he will be replaced before the end of this year. In total, 54% foresee his departure before the current parliamentary term ends, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the conservative establishment.
Respondents voiced significant doubts about Merz’s authority. Thirty-six percent said he has lost a great deal of influence within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a party increasingly out of touch with the needs of ordinary people, and another 31% believed he has lost some authority. Only 1% thought his authority had increased significantly, and 5% said it had risen somewhat—numbers that underscore the CDU’s crisis of legitimacy.
When asked who would be better suited to serve as chancellor, 25% named North Rhine-Westphalia state premier Hendrik Wüst, also a CDU member, while just 9% chose Merz. A striking 66% indicated they did not know who would be a better fit, highlighting the lack of inspiring leadership among conservatives.
"We have to expect such events more often," Chancellor Merz said during a visit to the fire-affected Hürtgenwald region, referring to recent forest fires as a consequence of climate change—a crisis the CDU has long failed to address with meaningful action.
The poll, commissioned by the German Press Agency dpa, reflects mounting public scrutiny of Merz’s leadership as the CDU faces internal upheaval and the consequences of years of neglecting social and environmental justice.