Progressive Democrat Leads Multiple New Polls Over GOP Candidate in Michigan Senate Race
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Four recent polls show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate contest, a key race for control of the U.S. Senate.
Four new surveys released this week give progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a single-digit advantage over Republican former Representative Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race, a contest that could affect the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. The polls, conducted by AARP, Susquehanna Polling & Research, TIPP Insights and GBAO, show El-Sayed leading by margins ranging from one to seven points among likely voters.
The AARP poll, surveying 877 likely voters Aug. 9-11, found El-Sayed at 48 % to Rogers’ 47 %, with independents favoring the Democrat 48 % to 42 %. The Susquehanna poll reported a 46 %–39 % gap, while TIPP Insights showed 45 % for El-Sayed versus 42 % for Rogers. GBAO’s survey gave the Democrat a 50 %–44 % lead. All polls have a margin of error of about ±3 percentage points.
"Despite public media reports that El-Sayed is facing a divided Democratic electorate after a bruising and closely contested August 4 primary, he leads Rogers 91 percent to 0 percent with self-identified Democrats and leads Rogers 46 percent to 24 percent with Independents and unaffiliated voters," the Susquehanna report reads.
Both candidates register negative favorability scores, with 45 % of respondents viewing El-Sayed unfavorably and 37 % viewing Rogers unfavorably. The surveys also note that a majority of Michigan voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, a factor Democrats hope to leverage.
Earlier in August, a Fox News poll showed Rogers ahead by four points, reviving concerns among some Democrats about El-Sayed’s electability in a swing state. Democratic strategist Mike Hellis described that poll as “sobering,” while Ellis Bates of VoteHub highlighted the rarity of a Republican lead in a Fox-polled battleground Senate race.
The race follows a contentious Democratic primary in which El-Sayed narrowly defeated centrist Rep. Haley Stevens. Issues such as U.S. policy toward Israel have emerged as potential flashpoints, given Michigan’s sizable Arab-American and Jewish communities.
Prediction-market data from Kalshi and Polymarket indicate a modest edge for El-Sayed, with implied probabilities of roughly 63 % and 65 % respectively as of early September.
Michigan’s Senate seat, currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters, is viewed as pivotal for Democrats seeking to flip the chamber, which is held by a 53-47 Republican majority. The outcome will influence the broader midterm map, where Democrats must win multiple swing-state contests to secure a Senate majority.