Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign defence pact amid shifting US role in Middle East
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Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan Sign Defence Pact, Undermining US-Led Security and Empowering Regional Rivals

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Summary

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have signed a mutual defence agreement in Mecca, raising concerns about the erosion of U.S. influence and the potential empowerment of adversarial regimes in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact in Mecca on Friday, establishing a framework that treats an armed attack on any of the three as an attack on all. The agreement, called the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, seeks to enhance defence cooperation among these countries, many of which have shown increasing willingness to distance themselves from traditional U.S. alliances.

Analysts warn that the pact reflects growing uncertainty about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, especially after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Al Jazeera that regional states have questioned U.S. resolve for years, and the recent conflict has accelerated their efforts to forge their own alliances—potentially at the expense of American interests. He noted that while the arrangement does not explicitly replace the United States, it clearly signals a desire for alternatives to U.S. leadership.

Sina Toossi, an analyst at the Center for International Policy, described the pact as a sign that the regional order is being reshaped in ways that could embolden regimes with questionable records on democracy and human rights. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expanding its security partnerships beyond Washington, a move that could undermine the longstanding U.S.-led security architecture in the Middle East.

Brett McGurk, a former senior U.S. Middle East policy official, described the current period as a 'fluid, tabula rasa era,' suggesting a dangerous vacuum of power. Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group emphasized that the three countries remain U.S. partners for now, but the agreement represents a form of 'normative deterrence'—a strategy that could ultimately weaken U.S. influence and embolden regional actors who may not share American values.

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