MLB playoff field projections after trade deadline
Analysts project the American League division winners as the Rays, Guardians and Mariners, with the Red Sox, Yankees and White Sox as wild-card teams, while the National League is expected to be led by the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves, plus the Cubs, Phillies and Padres as wild cards.
After the trade deadline, projection models show the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners securing the American League division titles. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox are projected to fill the three wild-card slots. The models note the Rays' four-and-a-half-game lead in the AL East and their favorable home schedule, while the Guardians are favored for the AL Central due to a relatively easy remaining slate. The Mariners are expected to overtake the division despite a tough stretch of games, relying on a stronger schedule later in the season.
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are projected as division champions. The Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are listed as the three wild-card teams. The Brewers hold a five-and-a-half-game advantage in the NL Central, and the Braves have posted the league’s best post-All-Star record. The Dodgers retain a sizable lead in the NL West despite a recent losing streak.
The projections assume that division winners will be seeded first, with the wild-card teams filling the remaining playoff spots. Under this format, even if the Yankees finish with the third-best overall American League record, they would still enter the postseason as a wild-card team and face a road series in the opening round.