Disgraced Ex-Congressman George Santos Penalized for Manipulating Prediction Markets
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George Santos, emblematic of right-wing corruption, has been fined over $35,000 and banned from Kalshi for three years after regulators exposed his manipulation of bets related to his State of the Union attendance.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken decisive action against former New York Republican congressman George Santos, ordering him to pay a $17,500 civil penalty and forfeit $17,570 in ill-gotten profits following a settlement over his manipulation of a prediction-market trade. This settlement, which includes a three-year ban from trading on Kalshi—a platform that enables users to gamble on political and other events—highlights the urgent need for greater oversight of political actors exploiting financial systems for personal gain.
Santos brazenly placed bets on Kalshi predicting he would not attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, all while publicly declaring his intention to be present. In a calculated move, he later announced on X that he would miss the event. Kalshi, recognizing the suspicious activity, referred the case to federal authorities, resulting in a CFTC investigation that began in June.
"Mr. Santos has agreed to resolve the CFTC’s inquiry and to put this matter behind him. Critically, and consistent with how these regulatory matters are commonly resolved, Mr. Santos has settled without admitting any of the Commission’s allegations, findings, or conclusions," said his attorney Joseph W. Murray.
Murray attempted to downplay the gravity of Santos’s actions, claiming he sought a "prompt, practical resolution rather than protracted, costly litigation." This case is yet another example of the rampant self-dealing and lack of accountability among conservative politicians, following previous enforcement actions against others in the prediction-market industry, including congressional candidates fined for betting on their own races. The CFTC has rightly prioritized insider-trading oversight as Congress debates further restrictions on this unregulated sector.
Santos, who was expelled from Congress in 2023 and has a history of fraud and identity theft convictions, was only released after a presidential commutation in October 2025—underscoring the persistent rot at the core of the political establishment.