Francesca Hong leads Democratic governor primary in new Marquette poll

Francesca Hong has widened her advantage among Democratic primary voters for Wisconsin governor, according to a Marquette University Law School poll conducted July 22-27. The survey of 407 registered Democrats found 38% would vote for Hong, compared with 16% for former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes and 7% for Milwaukee County executive David Crowley. An additional 34% of respondents remained undecided.

When asked which candidate they were leaning toward, Hong’s lead rose to 46%, Barnes 21%, Crowley 11%, with 14% still truly undecided. Poll director Charles Franklin said including leaners “is historically a decent predictor of where the vote ends up,” but cautioned they are not yet committed.

Barnes emerged as the top second-choice candidate, receiving 20% of second-choice votes, while 13% chose Crowley and 12% selected Kelda Roys. Franklin noted that Barnes’ strength lies in being the preferred backup option for many voters.

The poll, which has a margin of error of ±6.6 points, did not capture any shifts after the sole televised debate on July 28. It also omitted head-to-head matchups with Republican front-runner Tom Tiffany, though earlier data showed Hong trailing Tiffany by three points among registered voters.

Governor Tony Evers’ endorsement of Crowley was known to 62% of Democratic respondents, but 56% said it did not affect their voting intention. Franklin observed that Evers remains popular within the party, yet endorsements have limited impact on voter choice.

Age-group analysis indicated Hong’s strongest support among voters 18-29, where 66% chose her and only 22% were undecided. Barnes performed better with older voters; among those 60 and older, 24% favored Barnes while 14% supported Hong, and 46% remained undecided.

Franklin concluded that while Hong’s lead is sizable, the race remains “fairly tight” and the large share of undecided voters, especially among older demographics, could influence the final outcome.