Tropical Depression Two expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha, bringing rain and watches to Florida Gulf Coast
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Tropical Depression Two will intensify into Tropical Storm Bertha later today, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms and storm-surge watches to Florida’s west coast and Panhandle.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Tropical Depression Two, located about 110 miles south of Panama City, is moving northwest at 3 mph and is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts, and the system’s central pressure is 1005 mb.
Forecasters expect 2-4 inches of rain across the Florida Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas through Friday, with isolated totals up to 8 inches in some locations. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast for the state’s west coast, the Big Bend region and the Panhandle, and an isolated tornado or two is possible over the Big Bend area.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from the Ochlockonee River in north Florida to the Alabama-Florida border and extending to the Mississippi River mouth in Louisiana. A storm-surge watch covers the same stretch, indicating a risk of inundation from rising water.
Swells generated by the depression are already affecting parts of the Gulf coast and are expected to spread westward, creating hazardous surf and rip-current conditions.
"Dry air and hostile wind shear across the Gulf will be the biggest factors in whether this depression organizes," Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said. "Our forecast expects those conditions to prevent significant strengthening, though a temporary reduction in shear could allow more rapid intensification."
"Under any realistic scenario, TD 2 is predominantly a rainmaker," Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger added, noting that northerly shear is keeping most convection over water.
The NHC does not anticipate the system becoming a hurricane because Saharan dust and strong wind shear are inhibiting development. The depression is expected to turn slowly northwestward along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days before moving west-northwest or west.
In addition to the Florida system, the NHC is monitoring two other tropical waves—one in the eastern Atlantic and another in the eastern Caribbean—but neither shows significant convection at this time.