Le Pen's fourth presidential run dims EU hopes for a more moderate National Rally successor

Marine Le Pen declared on live television that she will be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, despite a recent court-imposed year of house arrest. Her announcement ended speculation that she might step aside for Jordan Bardella, the party’s 30-year-old leader.

EU officials said a Le Pen or Bardella presidency would pose significant challenges for the bloc’s upcoming budget negotiations and defence cooperation. Socialists and Democrats group leader Iratxe García warned that “the threat of the extreme right, the attack on European citizens’ rights and the policies that benefit these citizens” must be opposed, regardless of the candidate’s name. Dutch European People’s Party lawmaker Dirk Gotink added that “whoever runs, they are still far away from having a credible economic program.”

Some Brussels insiders have expressed a preference for Bardella, describing him as more pragmatic and less ideological than Le Pen. Croatian EPP vice-chair Željana Zovko said, “I think he’s more moderate than Marine Le Pen,” noting that Bardella does not advocate for a French exit from the EU or the euro. Latvian Renew Europe MEP Ivars Ījabs called Bardella “a very talented politician” but cautioned that his past skepticism toward NATO could threaten alliance cohesion.

Think-tank Eurasia Group’s Europe director Mujtaba Rahman said Bardella is “preferred but would still represent a major rupture in France’s historical relationship with the EU.” He highlighted Bardella’s willingness to engage with business leaders and to seek common ground with other conservative European leaders on issues such as bureaucracy, migration and regulatory reform. However, Rahman also noted that Bardella’s relative inexperience could be either an asset or a liability.

Not all EU groups dismissed the possibility of cooperation. Patryk Jaki, co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, said, “We are looking to real change in Europe and if we can cooperate with these two partners, we will be happy.”