Russian Spring-Summer Offensive Stalls as Ukraine Intensifies Long-Range Strikes
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia's 2026 offensive has made only limited territorial gains, while suffering markedly higher casualties and equipment losses amid a growing Ukrainian strike campaign.
Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive has made only modest progress, with Russian forces seizing about 30 square kilometres in June, a sharp decline from the 481 square kilometres captured in the same month a year earlier. The average daily advance fell to roughly one square kilometre, compared with more than 16 square kilometres per day in June 2025.
Ukrainian reports indicate Russian casualties in June reached nearly 40,000, translating to about 1,300 casualties per square kilometre seized, far higher than the 68 casualties per kilometre recorded in June 2025. Equipment losses also surged, with fuel vehicles, drones and artillery systems lost at multiples of the previous year’s figures.
In the city of Kostyantynivka, the main focus of Russia's effort, troops maintain a presence in about 37 % of the city but have not secured lasting control. Russian units, including a combined-arms army and an army corps, continue limited infiltration attempts, while Ukrainian forces report ongoing counter-attacks and strikes on logistics hubs.
Ukraine’s intermediate- and long-range strike campaign intensified in June, with over 300 strikes against Russian targets in occupied Ukraine and more than 30 attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military assets across the federation. The strikes have disrupted Russian logistics, contributed to fuel shortages, and forced Russia to increase crude oil exports while beginning to import refined gasoline, notably from India.
Russian authorities announced the temporary closure of seven railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia and Estonia effective July 1, though the reasons remain unclear.
"Russian forces are experiencing acute fuel shortages in frontline areas of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, rationing fuel for generators and conducting logistics on foot," said Colonel Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force.
Ukrainian commanders also noted that Belarus has not dismantled Russian-installed signal repeaters along the Belarus-Ukrainian border, despite recent threats to remove the equipment.
Overall, the assessment suggests that Russia’s offensive momentum is waning, casualties and equipment losses are rising, and Ukraine’s expanding strike capabilities are increasingly shaping the battlefield.