Experts Say Higher Prices for Gas, Food and Travel May Persist After Iran Conflict Ends
Economists warn that even if oil flows again from the Middle East, relief for gasoline, grocery and airline costs could take months, with lingering effects on fertilizer and shipping.
A tentative agreement to end hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to bring immediate price relief for U.S. consumers, analysts said. While crude oil prices fell to about $80 a barrel after news of the deal, refineries purchase crude months in advance, meaning cheaper fuel will take time to reach pumps, especially in regions with limited refining capacity such as the West Coast.
"The tendency of gasoline prices to fall slowly is partly because the raw material takes weeks to work through the system until it’s delivered to consumers," said Michael Lynch, a distinguished fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
Airlines also face delayed cost adjustments; fuel is bought ahead of schedule and ticket pricing depends on demand, so lower jet-fuel prices may not translate into cheaper fares this summer. Gordon Ho, a professor at the University of Southern California, noted that passengers are likely to question lingering fuel surcharges.
Food prices are expected to stay elevated. Fuel accounts for a significant share of grocery costs, and the disruption to fertilizer supplies – about 30% of global shipments passed through the strait – could keep food inflation pressure on markets for months. David Ortega, a food-economics professor at Michigan State University, said inflationary pressure on food is likely to continue, with U.S. grocery prices projected to rise 3.2% this year, above the historical average.
Farmers worldwide remain constrained by high fertilizer costs, a situation the United Nations World Food Programme warns could depress crop yields and food availability for an extended period.
Retailers, including footwear distributors, anticipate sustained higher shipping and material costs despite hopes that lower gasoline prices might boost consumer spending. Andy Polk, senior vice president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, said shipping expenses are expected to stay elevated through 2026 and 2027.
The broader shipping sector also expects a gradual recovery. Judah Levine of Freightos highlighted that the Hormuz closure affected only a small share of global container traffic, but higher fuel costs are likely to keep freight surcharges in place for consumers through the end of the year, according to ShipStation Global’s chief strategy officer Josh Steinitz.
