Russian Forces See Slowing Advances as Ukraine Gains Territory and Strikes Key Targets
Multiple open‑source assessments show Russian troops losing ground in May while Ukraine recaptures territory and conducts strikes on St. Petersburg and occupied regions, amid widening fuel shortages across Russia.
Open‑source analysts said Russian military momentum is waning in May 2026, with Ukrainian forces reclaiming roughly 250 sq km of territory while Russian units seized about 130 sq km, according to the Ukrainian defence outlet Militarnyi. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated Russian gains at 40 sq km in May but noted that Russian forces lost control of about 280 sq km during the same period.
Ukraine launched a second wave of attacks on St. Petersburg during the closing days of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The Ukrainian General Staff reported strikes on the Kronstadt Naval Base, the Petergofskaya oil depot, and a Russian material‑technical support centre near Bolshaya Izhora. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) added that the 15th Naval Arsenal was also hit. Geolocated footage confirmed drone‑borne impacts and a fire near Bolshaya Izhora, prompting St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov to advise residents to stay indoors.
Fuel shortages are spreading in occupied Crimea and across Russian regions. Drivers are queuing on the Kerch Bridge and traveling to Krasnodar’s Temryuksky district for gasoline, while Crimea’s occupation governor limited sales to 20 litres per customer. Similar long lines and reduced diesel availability have been reported in Tatarstan, Belgorod, Leningrad and other oblasts, raising concerns about Russia’s ability to meet summer demand.
In occupied eastern Ukraine, the Luhansk People’s Republic banned civilian traffic on the M‑14 highway and limited commuter trains, citing Ukrainian strikes on major ground lines of communication. Ukrainian forces have also reported drone‑enabled fire control over several towns along the Belgorod‑Mariupol corridor.
Russian officials reiterated their war aims. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said restoring the rights of Russians and Russian‑speaking people in Ukraine is a “necessary condition” for any settlement, echoing President Vladimir Putin’s recent statements that Russia will not deviate from its original objectives.
On the front lines, Russian troops continued limited infiltration missions in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, while Ukrainian forces reported strikes on command posts near the border and on Russian personnel concentrations near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn said Kyiv is regaining control in parts of the Oleksandrivka sector and forcing Russian units to shift to defensive postures.
Overall, the latest data suggest a gradual shift in battlefield dynamics, with Ukraine making incremental territorial gains and expanding its strike reach, while Russia grapples with logistical strains and mounting domestic challenges.