Becerra Leads in California Gubernatorial Race, Close Contest for Second Place
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A recent poll indicates Xavier Becerra leads among candidates for California's governorship, with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer in close contention for the second spot as the primary approaches.
Xavier Becerra has emerged as the front-runner in the race to succeed California Governor Gavin Newsom, garnering support from 25% of likely voters in a new poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. Republican Steve Hilton follows closely with 21%, while billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer, also a Democrat, holds 19%.
Since the previous poll in March, Becerra’s support has notably increased from a mere 5%, showcasing a significant shift in the electorate. Meanwhile, opposition candidates like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Democratic Representative Katie Porter have seen declines in their support, with Bianco at 6% and Porter at 7%.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo acknowledged the difficulty in predicting the outcomes, noting the unusually low voter turnout this cycle. "We’re assuming that ... the Democrats will in fact turn out in the final week," he stated, reflecting on the potential for increased participation among Democratic voters in the lead-up to the primary on June 2.
The poll revealed that Democratic voters favored Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points, while likely Republican voters showed a strong preference for Hilton, leading Bianco nearly two to one. While Becerra has clear advantages among women and Latino voters, Steyer performs better with Black voters, and Hilton claims support among libertarians and regions like Orange County.
Amidst others withdrawing from the race amid controversies, the political landscape has shifted, particularly with the sizeable financial contributions from Steyer, who has set records with a self-funding total of $212 million. Issues such as healthcare funding cuts and rising living costs remain crucial concerns for voters, influencing their choices.
Amid predictions that two Democrats could advance in the primary, DiCamillo indicated this shift could have significant repercussions for Republican chances in the general election, especially if the ballot lacks a Republican frontrunner. This could alter voter turnout for multiple congressional races with implications for the control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The comprehensive poll included over 8,500 registered voters and carries a margin of error of approximately 2 percentage points.