Google Engineer Charged with Insider Trading on Prediction Market

A Google software engineer, Michele Spagnulo, has been charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering after allegedly using confidential company information to earn more than $1.2 million on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Federal prosecutors in New York City unsealed the complaint, which accuses the 36-year-old Italian national of placing bets from October to December based on internal Google search data concerning user queries.

The complaint asserts that Spagnulo, using the username "AlphaRacoon," had prior knowledge of the outcomes of his wagers, as he accessed confidential internal data. Notably, he correctly predicted that the singer D4vd would be the most-searched person on Google in 2025, despite Polymarket assigning nearly zero probability to that outcome at the time of his bet.

Following his success, prosecutors allege that Spagnulo took measures to conceal the source of his winnings, as well as his identity relating to the unlawful information used. A Google spokesperson confirmed that the company is cooperating with law enforcement and emphasized that the employee’s actions constitute a serious breach of company policy, leading to his placement on leave.

Polymarket representatives noted their commitment to maintaining fair markets and compliance with regulations, highlighting that this is the first time cooperation with a prediction platform has resulted in insider trading charges in the U.S. This incident follows another case involving a U.S. Special Forces soldier accused of making bets using classified information related to a political operation in Venezuela. U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton criticized insider trading as detrimental to market integrity and reiterated that corporate insiders must not exploit confidential business information for profit.