Trump Warns of Renewed Strikes if Iran Rejects Peace Terms

President Trump announced late Wednesday that U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East will "remain in place" until a peace agreement with Iran is reached and implemented. This statement follows a fragile start to a two-week ceasefire, during which Israel continued airstrikes in Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of casualties. Additionally, Gulf Arab nations reported drone and missile attacks on oil refineries and power plants, and reports emerged that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage for approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas shipments.

The ongoing instability has impacted global markets, with oil prices rising and stock markets dipping. Brent crude, the international benchmark, increased by 2.4% to $97 per barrel.

Trump warned that military strikes on Iran would resume if the country does not adhere to the agreed-upon terms. He emphasized that the deal must prohibit nuclear enrichment in Iran and ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open. "It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary—NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE," Trump stated on Truth Social.

The White House refuted reports that Iran had closed the strait, labeling them as false and noting an uptick in traffic through the passage on Wednesday.

High-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to commence on Saturday in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. delegation. However, confusion persists over the ceasefire terms, with Iran advocating for a 10-point plan that includes full control over the Strait of Hormuz, removal of sanctions, and recognition of its right to nuclear enrichment. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed Iran's proposal, stating it was "literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump."

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have drawn condemnation from Iran and criticism from Pakistan. The inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire terms remains disputed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office expressed support for Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran but stated that the ceasefire does not extend to Lebanon. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif had announced that the Iran-U.S. ceasefire would also apply to Lebanon.

Hezbollah insists that the ceasefire includes Lebanon and warned of regional responses if Israel does not adhere to it. Iran condemned the continued assault on Lebanon, stating it is the U.S. government's responsibility to end it. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remarked, "The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments."

Gulf Arab countries are seeking to enhance defense cooperation with the U.S. military, relying on U.S. defense systems to intercept recent Iranian missile and drone attacks. An official from the region, speaking anonymously, indicated that Gulf nations want a U.S.-Iran deal to include a framework to protect energy facilities and ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Lebanon observed a national day of mourning on Thursday after Israeli airstrikes killed over 250 people, including civilians and four soldiers. The Israeli military reported conducting 100 strikes in 10 minutes in Beirut on Wednesday, targeting areas beyond Hezbollah strongholds. The International Committee of the Red Cross expressed outrage over attacks in densely populated urban areas.

The Committee to Protect Journalists reported that Israeli airstrikes killed three journalists in Lebanon and Gaza. Al Jazeera confirmed the death of its correspondent Mohammed Wishah, marking the 11th journalist from the network killed in Gaza. CPJ called for independent investigations into these attacks as potential war crimes.

The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. While Iran announced it had ceased transit operations in response to Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, the White House denied these reports. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring Iran to reopen the strait for safe passage, over a hundred ships remain stalled, with operators seeking clarity amid threats from Iran against unauthorized transits. Erik Broekhuizen, a U.S.-based ship broker, noted concerns over Iran's decentralized military command, stating, "You don't really know who to talk to, who is in charge, and whether all the sort of regional commanders have gotten the memo that the strait is open and they should stop attacking vessels."

Operators are also confused by Iran's new fee system and payment collection methods as the government implements new toll procedures. Several oil tanker operators reported paying at least $1 million to transit the strait. An English-language VHF broadcast warned ships in and around the strait that permission is required before attempting transit.