New Polymarket Accounts Profit from Timely US-Iran Ceasefire Bets
Recently created accounts on Polymarket placed significant bets on a US-Iran ceasefire shortly before its announcement, raising concerns about potential insider trading.
In the hours leading up to the April 7, 2026, announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, a cluster of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed substantial bets predicting the agreement. These well-timed wagers resulted in profits totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars for the account holders.
Despite escalating rhetoric from President Donald Trump earlier that day, including a social media warning that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET, these accounts bet on a ceasefire. An analysis of blockchain data revealed that at least 50 new wallets placed significant "yes" bets on the ceasefire before Trump's announcement at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET. One such wallet, created around 10 a.m. ET on April 7, placed approximately $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents, later cashing out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, established 12 minutes before the announcement, made $31,908 in "yes" bets at 33.7 cents, earning an estimated profit of $48,500.
The timing and profitability of these bets have raised questions about potential insider trading. Public blockchain data cannot identify the individuals behind these wallets, and Polymarket's use of proxy smart contract wallets allows users to create multiple accounts, complicating efforts to determine whether these were new or existing users. Polymarket has not responded to requests for comment.
This pattern mirrors previous instances on the platform, where newly created accounts placed large wagers shortly before significant geopolitical events, such as the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, resulting in substantial profits. These occurrences have prompted public and congressional scrutiny, with bipartisan groups of lawmakers introducing legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University, emphasized the need for regulation, stating, "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
While some users have realized significant profits, others are awaiting payouts due to Polymarket labeling the Iran-US ceasefire contract as "disputed," citing ongoing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile attacks in the region. The dispute is expected to take 48 hours to resolve.