Russia's 2025 Advances in Ukraine Yield Minimal Gains Amid High Casualties

In 2025, Russian forces advanced 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine, capturing 0.8% of its territory, while incurring over 416,000 casualties. This marks an increase from 2024, where 3,604 square kilometers were seized. The average daily advance rose to 13.24 square kilometers in 2025, up from 9.87 in 2024. Notably, November saw the highest rate at 20.99 square kilometers per day, which then declined to 15 in December.

The increased pace is attributed to a new operational approach involving prolonged battlefield air interdiction, tactical interdiction, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults. Technological advancements, such as the deployment of fiber optic UAVs resistant to electronic warfare and 'mothership' drones extending the range of first-person view drones, have supported these operations. Despite these efforts, Russian forces have not achieved their objectives of capturing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast or establishing a buffer zone in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

Ukrainian defenses, particularly in the Fortress Belt, have effectively constrained Russian advances. While Russian forces have exploited adverse weather conditions to hinder Ukrainian drone operations, their overall progress remains slow, and the sustainability of their current operational tempo is uncertain.

In response, Ukrainian forces have initiated their own battlefield air interdiction campaign, increasing mid-range strikes against Russian energy and military assets. This includes targeting oil depots, substations, and military positions in occupied territories and Crimea. The effectiveness of this campaign in countering Russian advances is yet to be determined.

Throughout 2025, Russian forces launched over 54,000 long-range drones and more than 1,900 missiles against Ukraine, with strike packages growing significantly in size. The largest, on September 6-7, included 810 drones and 13 missiles. These strikes have primarily targeted Ukraine's energy grid and railway infrastructure, employing technological adaptations like integrated cameras and radio control capabilities on drones to enhance effectiveness.

The Kremlin has presented unverified evidence alleging Ukrainian drone strikes targeted President Vladimir Putin's residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 28-29. However, the lack of corroborating reports and inconsistencies in the presented evidence raise questions about the credibility of these claims.

In his New Year's Eve address, President Putin declared 2026 as the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia, emphasizing national unity and support for the ongoing war effort. This narrative contrasts with the views of Russian ultranationalists who advocate for a focus on ethnic Russian identity and the Russian Orthodox Church.