Kremlin Poised to Reject Ukrainian and European Peace Proposals

The Kremlin is preparing to reject peace proposals from Ukraine and European nations, following its earlier dismissal of significant elements in a U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated in a television interview on December 14 that Russia has articulated its position "very clearly" and will have "strong objections" if Ukraine and Europe introduce amendments to the peace plan. Ushakov emphasized that Russia will not accept provisions concerning various "territorial issues," including discussions about a demilitarized "buffer" zone in Donbas.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, responding to inquiries about the possibility of Ukraine reneging on a peace agreement, demanded that Russia receive guarantees and a system for implementing any peace accords. Peskov also underscored that the Kremlin is uninterested in reviewing the European stance on the peace deal. On December 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov effectively rejected seven points of the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan, including provisions related to territorial swaps based on the line of contact and the provision of reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. negotiators in Berlin, Germany, on December 14 to continue discussions aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine. Zelensky, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, former Senior Advisor to the U.S. President Jared Kushner, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz convened to deliberate on a 20-point peace plan. Witkoff indicated that negotiations would resume on December 15. Ukrainian Presidential Communications Adviser Dmytro Lytvyn reported that the talks lasted over five hours.

Russian forces are likely to continue facing challenges in maintaining the Kremlin's desired multi-pronged offensive operations in various directions due to the long-term material and manpower costs associated with such operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and military officials have recently intensified claims of advances across the frontline, particularly focusing on the Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, and Hulyaipole directions. Putin implied on November 27 that Russian forces would swiftly translate advances near Hulyaipole into operational breakthroughs in the Zaporizhia direction. However, achieving tangible operational effects would require Russia to generate and concentrate substantially more manpower and material on each of these fronts or to selectively prioritize offensive efforts in one area, potentially compromising the Kremlin's information operations that aim to portray Russian forces as on the verge of collapsing the entire frontline.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed on December 13 that the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces, operating in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions, will need to regroup or receive reinforcements from other operational areas to continue offensive operations near Hulyaipole. Mashovets noted that Russian forces are increasingly struggling to conduct simultaneous offensive operations in the 5th Combined Arms Army's area of responsibility east and northeast of Hulyaipole and in the 36th Combined Arms Army's area in the Oleksandrivka direction. He stated that the Eastern Grouping's troops and material are stretched along a wide frontline, which may complicate further offensive operations unless the Russian military command narrows the offensive zone near Hulyaipole or transfers additional resources from other directions. Mashovets suggested that Russian forces may redeploy elements of the 36th and 29th Combined Arms Armies, currently operating in the Oleksandrivka direction, to the 5th Combined Arms Army's area over the coming weeks. He argued that elements of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade will be unable to achieve imminent tactical or operational successes.

Russian efforts to initiate the battle for the Fortress Belt—Ukraine's main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014—are likely to further strain Russian resources. Mashovets assessed that offensives against the Fortress Belt's Slovyansk and Kramatorsk strongholds would require the Russian military command to fully commit troops and material from the Western, Southern, and Central Groupings of Forces, and that Russian forces will not be able to "get distracted" on other directions, such as the Velykyi Burlyk or Orikhiv directions. He added that Russia's strategic challenges, including issues with its domestic wartime economy and defense industrial base, will negatively impact its ability to generate sufficient forces and material for multi-pronged offensives. Consequently, Russia will likely need to concentrate even more forces and deprioritize other frontline sectors to exploit tactical advances around Hulyaipole or to attempt to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is therefore making territorial demands of unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts because it cannot militarily seize these regions at this time.

Ukraine's long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia's oil refining and military capabilities both within Russia and in occupied Ukrainian territories. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 14 that Ukrainian forces struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, causing explosions and a large-scale fire. Geolocated footage published on December 14 shows a significant fire on the refinery's premises. Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi reported that the refinery has a processing capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Uryupinsk Oil Depot in Volgograd Oblast, resulting in explosions and fires at the facility. Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrei Bocharov claimed that drone debris set fire to the Uryupinsk Oil Depot. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on December 14 that Ukrainian forces likely targeted the Slavneft-YANOS Oil Refinery, one of Russia's largest oil refineries, in Yaroslavl City, Yaroslavl Oblast. Militarnyi reported that local Telegram channels reported witnessing explosions near the oil refinery. Yaroslavl Oblast Governor Mikhail Yevraev issued a drone strike warning for unspecified areas of Yaroslavl Oblast on December 13. Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck the Dorogobuzhskaya Thermal Power Plant in Smolensk Oblast, causing power outages in the region.

Ukrainian forces also targeted Russian military and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 14 that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian PMM ferry bridge vehicles, and Kasta-2E2 and 96L6E radar stations in occupied Crimea. The 96L6E is an expensive component for Russia's S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces published footage on December 14, later geolocated, showing Ukrainian drone strikes on a Russian fuel train near occupied Yantarne, Crimea, and on an oil depot near occupied Bitumne, Crimea. Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck two oil depots in occupied Simferopol and a substation in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea, with NASA FIRMS data indicating fires at the oil depot in Bitumne and at the Dzhankoi power substation. Militarnyi reported that the strikes against the power substation likely caused power outages in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, and Russian occupation officials reported extensive power outages in these regions. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces and the Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian drones struck two command posts of the Russian 76th Airborne Division; a 9С19 Imbir radar station; a Volna-2 electronic warfare station; and a first-person view drone operator training center in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian TOR-M2 anti-aircraft missile system and a Russian drone lab in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.